A ridge of high pressure starts to enter our patrol zone tomorrow, and temperatures slowly warm throughout the week.  We may even have our first sunny and warm weekend coming up in a while.  The Canadian solution is making the weekend look rather nice in our patrol zone, but it will be at least a little windy (because it’s always windy).

Our next shot of snow looks to come in around Monday February 6, in a slow moving and messy system from the west northwest, with perhaps a closed low forming to our south.  The Canadian Model sees steady snow from Monday (2/6) to Thursday (2/9) with a total of 5” of snow.  The American Model sees just an inch of snow on Monday, and then possibly more snow next Thursday.  The European Model looks closer to the Canadian solution than the American solution.  Of course, we’re looking six to nine days out, so take everything with a large grain of salt.  (Visualize a grain of salt the size of Caribou Hill when we’re talking about snowfall potential nine days out.)

Retrospective Discussion:

What a week!  If my forecast is going to be wrong, I’d just assume it’s because we got way more snow than even the most optimistic model solution.  Eldora reported a total of 14” out of the last system, which frankly sounds too low based upon my occasional glances at the snow stake webcam.  But even if we accept the 14”, the actual snowfall outperformed the two most optimistic models, the WRF and the European Model, by a decent amount.  It crushed the Canadian, UK Met, and American Models, and the NAM and RDPS solutions of 2-3” were just laughable.  How great it was to get so much snow!


-Jordan (Tuesday (1/31) morning)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.