Moisture continues to funnel from the northwest to the northern Colorado mountains. The models seriously disagree on the extent of snow we’ll get over the next four day period. Every time I check another model, the less clear the picture becomes. Best odds for the most snow are to either (i) go as far north as you can in our patrol zone, or (ii) get as close to the Divide as you can in our patrol zone.
Here are the various model forecasts from Thursday evening through Monday:
10” – WRF Model
9” – European Model
5” – Canadian, UK Met, and American Models
3” – RDPS Model
2” – NAM Model
My tongue-in-cheek title to this post is probably not enough, as figure there’s still a real chance the NAM and RDPS Models are slightly overpredicting or the WRF and European Models are slightly underpredicting, so perhaps I should have written 1-12” of snow on tap. That said, while I hope the WRF and European Models are right, I think the odds are a bit better that the Canadian and American solutions are correct as they (especially the Canadian Model) tend to be the most reliable, but who knows. Regardless, highs look to be in the upper teens or low twenties both days this weekend.
After that, weather looks to be dull for much of next week as a closed low passes too far south to have any impact on our patrol zone.
Retrospective Discussion:
Sadly, while the cold portion of the forecast really panned out, the small but steady snows this week did not so far. Eldora has reported 1” this week, so assuming we don’t get more snow tomorrow, the UK Met Model was the closest with the American and European Model being too optimistic, and the Canadian Model even more improperly optimistic.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Thursday (1/26/23) afternoon)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
