A powerful system from the west southwest passes through our patrol zone on Tuesday night into Wednesday, with some potential upslope. However, the location of the low pressure as well as the speed of the system is a bit unclear. The models are fairly consistent with a 4-8” forecast for our system, here are each of the model forecasts:
8” – WRF Model
7” – Canadian Model
6” – RDPS Model
5” – American and European Models
4” – NAM and UK Met Models
A smaller system from the northwest looks to hit our patrol zone around Friday, with between a trace to one inch depending on the model. The next system perhaps comes in around Sunday/Monday, with the American Model calling for 3” and the Canadian Model calling for 2”. Between Saturday and Sunday this upcoming weekend, Saturday looks to have more pleasant weather.
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora received 2” of snow in the last system, which means that most models were right on the money when the storm was close (i.e., Canadian, UK Met, and European), while the WRF was too high and the American too low. Of the global models ability to predict this system almost a week out, the European Model was too optimistic, the American Model was too pessimistic, but the Canadian Model was (almost) just right.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday (1/16/23) evening)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
