Today and Saturday should be pleasant.  Then, the first of three systems, the first two (and possibly the third) of which look like they’ll produce fast moving low pressure systems to our south, will pass by on Sunday. 

The first system on Sunday, generally from the west, looks to produce some minor snowfall in our patrol zone but without much of an upslope component.  Here are the model forecasts:

4” – WRF Model

2” – Canadian, UK Met, and European Models

1” – American Model

The next system goes by on Tuesday, also generally from the west, with perhaps a bit more of an upslope component.  Here are the model snow forecasts:

3” – Canadian Model

2” – UK Met Model

1” – American and European Models

Then, on Thursday to Saturday, a system from the northwest looks to move into our patrol zone, with the slight possibility of an upslope as well.  Here are the model snow forecasts.

6” – Canadian Model

4” – European Model

2” – American Model

Retrospective Discussion:

Tough to call how much snow fell in our patrol zone, so hard to assess the accuracy of the past forecast.  My best guess from looking at the Eldora Snowstake Webcam was 4”, but it was difficult to tell.  Eldora reported 2” of snow.  So the American Model was low, but otherwise, can’t judge the other models.


-Jordan (Friday (1/13) Morning)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.