Three systems from the west look to hit our patrol zone (and other mountains even more) over the next week. Nothing looks to be too big, but the models still have significant disagreement, and hopefully the various storms will add up. The European Model, unusually, is the most bullish, and the American Model is the most pessimistic. Let’s hope the European Model solution proves to be the most accurate.
This weekend looks to have the warmest temperatures of the whole weak. As for snow, the first system is Saturday to Sunday morning. Here are the model forecasts:
4” – WRF Model
3” – European Model
2” – Canadian Model
Trace – American Model
The second one is on Monday to Tuesday. Here are the model forecasts:
5” – WRF Model and European Model
4” – Canadian
1” – American Model
The third one is on Friday or Saturday. Here are the model forecasts:
2” – European Model
1” – Canadian Model
Trace – American Model
Come on snow!
Retrospective Discussion:
For the Tuesday night system, Eldora’s webcam showed 11”, the models only predicted 3-8” on Monday, and I didn’t point out that you couldn’t trust the models on this forecast. So what went wrong with my forecast? In short, when putting together these forecasts (as time is limited), for the big picture I only review the American Model and only at two heights – 700 and 300 millibars – before diving into the point forecasts. (While I find the Canadian Model is the most accurate overall for our patrol zone, the interface for the American Model is much better, which is why it’s where I start.) The American Model on Monday morning wasn’t yet predicting that we’d be under a true jet streak, so I couldn’t put in the caveat to not trust the model’s predictions. Sorry! Anyhow, the Canadian Model underpredicted the storm, the American Model significantly underpredicted the storm, and the UK Met and European Models completely dropped the ball, predicting a mere 3”.
Happy New Year!
-Jordan (Friday 12/30/22 morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
