Complicated forecast.  We’ll be getting some snow on Wednesday into Thursday morning from a combination of three factors (in probably the following descending order of importance): (i) a jet streak, (ii) a cold front, and (iii) a trough bringing spillover snow from the northwest.  As if that’s not enough to make my non-scientist head spin, add into that the fact that temperatures will plummet at the end of the storm making it probably cold enough to inhibit good snow production.  On the other hand, jet streaks tend to favor our patrol zone, and this is a left entrance jet streak, the best kind.  My head hurts trying to figure this system out.

Anyhow, I’m probably overthinking this as the models are pretty consistent on snowfall and temperature.  Here are the various model forecasts of the Wednesday to Thursday morning system:

6” – Canadian and UK Met Models

5” – American and European Models

Thursday will be cold, with highs probably just barely north of zero degrees.  A weak system from the west northwest looks to impact us on Saturday (Christmas Eve), and a second weak system from the northwest looks to impact us on Sunday (Christmas Day).  Since the second system is right on the first system’s tail, I’ll just provide the various model forecasts of the two systems together:

5” – Canadian Model

4” – UK Met Model

3” – European Model

1” – American Model

Happy Holidays!

-Jordan (Tuesday (12/20) morning)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.