Saturday looks still somewhat cold but at least sunny. Sunday looks partly cloudy and a bit warmer.
On Monday a system from the southwest looks to pass too far south of our patrol zone to provide any snow. Temperatures continue to warm. Then Wednesday a weak system looks to come in from the northwest. Here are the global model forecasts for this system:
3” – Canadian Model
2” – European Model
1” – American Model
The Wednesday system is followed by another weak system from the north northwest with its first wave on Friday (12/23) and a second wave on Saturday and Christmas. Here are the model predictions for this system, though keep in mind that these forecasts are practically in forecast fairyland:
8” – European Model
6” – Canadian Model
4” – American Model
For the Front Range, the American Model is calling for a White Christmas but the Canadian Model is not.
Retrospective Discussion:
The storm went way too far north. Steamboat got 40”. Terry Peak Ski Area in the Black Hills of South Dakota got so much snow they’ve been closed for days now and don’t know how much snow they actually got – but estimates are 5+ feet. What did we get?
Eldora’s webcam shows 3” out of the whole system. 3 measly inches. So, the American Model was dead-on, the RDPS and NAM Models were pretty good, the Canadian and UK Met Models were pretty overoptimistic, and the WRF and European Models were wildly too optimistic.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday (12/16) Morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
