Sorry that this is the first post of the season, but I’ve just returned to Colorado after a long ski trip in Antarctica. 

To orient us to our weather so far this season, in our patrol zone, it’s been pretty much average.  The three Snotels in our patrol zone, which are all close to 10,000’ in elevation, are currently showing 100% of average (Lake Eldora); 111% of average (University Camp); and 122% of average (Niwot).

Weather looks to be boring and mild through this weekend.  It should be sunny with a few clouds and highs in the 30s both weekend days.  It’ll be somewhat windy (as it’s always windy in our patrol zone), but not too bad this weekend.  Next week starting Tuesday looks to be much windier.

On the snow front, things get interesting Monday.  A large low pressure system, currently to the west of Seattle, looks to hit us on Monday or possibly Tuesday, with lingering effects for a few days.  While these can be very promising systems for our patrol zone, the big two caveats are (i) the exact location of the low makes a tremendous difference on whether we get a dump or get skunked, and (ii) usually by this time of the year, the systems move to the east too fast to be the same gigantic producers they often are come springtime. 

Here are the various model predictions from Monday through end of the day Thursday:

10” – UK Met Model

9” – Canadian Model

7” – European Model

4” – American Model

Let’s keep our fingers crossed that this storm overproduces.  Cheers.

-Jordan (Friday (12/9) morning)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.