The second half of May has been great – Mayuary as some people have called it – and it looks like June will start off with a (snow filled) bang! A small upslope coupled with a jet streak should produce a real snow storm on Tuesday evening through Wednesday (June 1) morning. Here are the various model forecasts:
14” – RDPS Model
13” – NAM Model
11” – American Model
10” – European Model
8” – Canadian Model
5” – UK Met Model
2” – WRF Model
Any snow this time of year is good to delay the run-off and increase the quality of late spring and early summer skiing. And fingers’ crossed the more optimistic model solutions come to pass, and we get close to a foot (or more) of snow. Come on Juneuary!
The May storm delivered – the primary storm dumped 14” in Nederland and 1.1” of SWE at the Lake Eldora Snotel. And then more snow fell over the next several days. A few thoughts on my prior forecast. Interestingly, the snow was lighter than I expected. It also appears to have been predominantly fueled by a jet streak – which I relegated to my third reason for the snow in my forecast (and part of the reason the snow was lighter). Regardless of my so-so forecast, it was a great storm! For what it’s worth, the American and Canadian Models overpredicted the storm, and the European and UK Met Models underpredicted the storm.
-Jordan (Monday (5/30) morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.