Okay, this system is way too exciting not to write about, even though I already posted my season wrap-up.
A complex system approaches on Friday from the north northwest – with snow being fueled by primarily by (i) a low pressure system with the low currently forecasted to center roughly in the middle of the state (a good spot for it to be for our patrol zone), and (ii) a cold front. Although probably less important, there may be a jet assist to snowfall as well. Temperatures will drop from a high of almost 70 degrees at 10,000’ on Thursday to a low Saturday night of perhaps 15 degrees. That’s a heck of a temperature shift. Although this is a cold system for this time of year, make no mistake, this Spring storm will likely produce heavy snow as the temperatures are still rather warm compared to our winter storms.
There’s still major model disagreement over the power of this storm (and frankly the three major models have been bouncing around quite a lot for the last few days). So, as of the time of writing this, what are the models predicting? The American and Canadian Models are both bullish, but the European and UK Met Models are not.
Let’s break down this storm into two rounds. Round one, the bigger snowfall round, will be Friday at noon to the end of the day Saturday. Here are the model snow forecasts for our patrol zone:
25” – American Model
22” – Canadian Model
6” – European Model
3” – UK Met Model
We may be looking at a decent powder day on Winter Park’s scheduled closing day.
For those curious, the RDPS and NAM Models are only predicting out to midnight on Friday at this point, but the RDPS Model is calling for 12” by midnight, and the NAM is calling for 4” by midnight. And this system is not yet in range of the WRF Model.
The second round is Sunday afternoon to Monday night. Here are the model snow forecasts for our patrol zone:
4” – Canadian Model
3” – American Model
Dusting – European Model
0” – UK Met Model
Well, I’m very excited to keep watching this system. Fingers’ crossed it pans out. And fingers’ crossed that this is not actually the last hurrah, and I have to write at least one more post before the season is over.
-Jordan (Tuesday (5/17) evening)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.