The weather looks warm and pleasant for a while without any good spring storms on the horizon. Boo!
About time to throw in the towel on this winter of weather forecasts for our patrol zone. I’ll keep an eye on things, and if there’s nothing interesting snow wise in a bit, I’ll stop posting forecasts and just write a year wrap-up post.
Friendly reminder that as the temperatures warm over the next week, we’re likely going to see our annual spring wet slab cycle take place soon. Be careful about skiing the big lines out there until the snowpack consolidates in a couple of weeks.
If you really care about the boring weather in the forecast, it looks like zonal flow for the next few days. Then, a storm system well to our north may produce a little snow (or rain) on Saturday night-ish in the 0-3” range. There may be a second wave from that system on Monday, but the major models aren’t call for any precipitation in our patrol zone for that round. Then the next snow forecasted isn’t until out in forecast fairyland around May 15.
Look forward to seeing everyone at the patrol picnic and/or the patrol Mt. Russel ski day.
Retrospective Discussion:
On the most recent storm, happily, the European and Canadian Models’ solutions on Monday for the closed low to go through Colorado panned out (as opposed to the American and WRF Models’ solutions for the closed low to go through Wyoming). That means we got a nice shot of spring snow on Tuesday to Thursday! Hard to estimate, but probably our patrol zone got 7-10” of pretty heavy powder. So the Canadian Model was spot on, the European Model was a touch high, the UK Met model was a touch low, the American Model was embarrassingly low, and the WRF model’s ½” forecast was the worst of all. Considering the system predicted by the American model but not predicted by the Canadian Model for early next week doesn’t look like it’s happening, the Canadian Model overall did an impressive job on the two systems, while the American Model fell flat on its face. If there’s anything redeeming for the American Model, it did a better job on this week’s storm than the Canadian or European Model 5-7 days out, though they did a better job as the storm got closer.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Thursday (5/5) evening)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
