The beginning of May is starting to look pretty promising from a snow standpoint. These forecasts are still a bit away, so please don’t get too excited yet. However, to whet your appetite, over the next ten days the American Model is calling for a total of 30”, the European Model is calling for a total of 22”, and the Canadian Model is calling for a total of 21”. And, the European and Canadian models are quite aligned on the snowfall amounts.
Let’s dive into the details. A low pressure system currently a ways west of Seattle looks to hit our patrol zone Sunday evening through Monday. Temperatures will be warm, and unfortunately not a huge upslope component. Here are the model forecasts:
6” – European Model
5” – American Model
4” – Canadian Model
3” – UK Met Model
Then, a second and hopefully more powerful system, also from the northwest, looks to hit us between Tuesday afternoon and Thursday evening (i.e., Cinco de Mayo). Temperatures again look to be on the warm side, but probably a bigger (though not huge) upslope component. Here are the model forecasts:
16” – Canadian and European Models
11” – American Model
The UK Model current run is only halfway through this storm, but it’s much more pessimistic.
At the edge of forecast fairyland, on Saturday May 7, the American Model is predicting another large storm (14”), but the European and Canadian Models are not. Fingers crossed that by the end of next week we’ll truly be measuring the week’s snow in feet and not inches.
-Jordan (Friday (4/29) afternoon)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.