Two rounds of snow ahead – one on Sunday/Monday and one on Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. The first one is a low pressure system with potential upslope, and the models are all over the map (I never tire of that pun) on how much snow it will produce (1” to 12”). The second one is a more standard storm from the northwest, and although further away, the models agree a lot more about how much snow we’ll get (6-7”).
Here are the details:
A brief wave of moisture passes by us on Thursday night – but it looks to be only a half an inch of snow at most, if anything. Then, there should be a brief lull of pleasant weather. Saturday should have some sun and warmth with the usual westerly winds.
A small low pressure system forms over northwest Colorado on Sunday and meanders over our patrol zone, or south of our patrol zone, or who knows where, by Sunday evening / Monday morning. This means that we’ll get snow Sunday afternoon to mid-day Monday with (hopefully) easterly winds. Below are the various model snow forecasts for our patrol zone:
12” – Canadian Model
7” – American Model
5” – UK Met Model
1” – European Model
After a lull Monday evening and Tuesday morning, a larger system (for Colorado but probably not for our patrol zone) comes in from the Pacific Northwest. The Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning model forecasts, with westerly winds, are:
7” – Canadian and American Models
6” – European Model
Then, at the edge of forecast fairyland weather looks to warm up and become more pleasant towards the end of next week.
Retrospective Discussion:
Sadly, Eldora only picked up 3”, which was the lowest amount for any ski area in Northern Colorado (nearby Winter Park by comparison picked up 7”). All models overpredicted this one with the European Model being the closest to accurate, the WRF Model second closest, and the American Model the furthest off.
-Jordan (Thursday (3/31) morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
