Interesting weather ahead.  I wish I had more time to put into this forecast.  Here’s the bare-bones version. 

A system from the west northwest looks to hit our patrol zone from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday evening.  It then looks to create a classic Colorado low to impact the Midwest.  Here are the model forecasts for our patrol zone for that system:

17” – American Model

10” – Canadian Model 

8” – European Model

7” – UK Met Model

6” – WRF Model

There looks to be a warm-up for the weekend, with the next storm system, a low pressure system, looks to potentially hit us around Monday March 21. 

The European and Canadian models put the center of the low pressure way south of us, and aren’t calling for much snow in our patrol zone.  The American Model, on the other hand, puts the storm square in our patrol zone’s sights.  If you believe the American Model, it would be a storm for the record books with wind gusts from the northeast (a great direction for snow production for our patrol zone) up to 40 mph (which could create an upslope storm of amazing proportions).

Here are the model forecasts for that system, and yes, the American Model number is not a typo, and I checked multiple sources of the GFS (i.e., American) Model before typing the crazy number:

62” – American Model

4” – Canadian Model

2” – European Model

So, early next week, expect some snow in the amounts of somewhere between two inches and more than five feet.  How’s that for exact forecasting? 

In any event, I’m not holding my breath (at least not yet).

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora reported 1” on Monday morning, so the European Model was dead-on, and the UK Met Model was way too high.


-Jordan (Tuesday (3/15) afternoon)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.