Between nothing and an inch of snow on Friday night into Saturday.  Then, a partly cloudy and windy (surprise!) weekend, with Saturday probably the windier of the two days.

A quick system from the west northwest passes over us on Sunday night to Monday morning.  Here are the model snow forecasts for our patrol zone:

4” per the UK Met Model

2” per the Canadian Model

1” per the European Model

½” per the American Model

Another system from the west northwest looks to pass over our patrol zone on Wednesday / Thursday.  Here are the model snow forecasts for our patrol zone:

5” per the European Model

1” per the American and Canadian Models

Retrospective Discussion:

For the second time in a row, the models overpredicted snow.  Eldora picked up 4” during the midweek cycle, so the American Model’s 5” prediction was quite good, but the Canadian and WRF Models way overpredicted the storm.  Let’s just not forget that a few weeks ago the models significantly underpredicted a few systems, so we can’t be too sad.  And, I just was in Taos where the models were predicting roughly a foot for the five days I was there, and three feet actually fell during that time.  So, sometimes more snow falls than expected and other times less snow falls than expected.


-Jordan (Thursday (3/7) evening)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.