I’m back from Antarctica and South Africa.  (If anyone is curious, an article on our skiing in Antarctica is here: Colorado Fourth Grader Skis Antarctica on Way Towards Breaking World Record – SnowBrains.)  Thanks to Ben for keeping the forecasts up in my absence!  Much appreciated.

Interesting weather mostly stays to the east of us for a while.  We’re under a ridge of high pressure, meaning warm and pleasant weather, which none of us like.  Tuesday looks to be sunny. 

Then, a quick shot of snow coming from the northwest may hit us on Wednesday/Thursday.  Here are the various model forecasts for our backcountry patrol zone:

1½” – American and WRF Models

½” – Canadian Model

0” – European Model

Another quick shot of snow coming from the northwest may hit us again on Friday night.  There may be an upslope component to this system.  Here are the model forecasts for our patrol zone:

4” – Canadian Model 

3” – American Model

2” – European Model

It looks like a sunny weekend.  Then, basically out in forecast fairyland, a system may come in next Tuesday (2/15).  The Canadian Model is calling for 9” by Wednesday (2/16) evening, the European Model is calling for 5”, but the American Model is only calling for a dusting. 

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora reported 2” of snow Saturday night, much higher than any model anticipated.  The Canadian Model at least gets kudos for predicting more than a dusting, while the American, UK Met, and European Models only predicted a dusting. 


-Jordan (Monday 2/7/22 afternoon)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.