Tuesday should be partly cloudy.  On Wednesday, a system from the northwest passes to the north of our patrol zone, and a smaller system from the southwest passes to the south of our patrol zone.  We may get a touch of precipitation out of one or the other system, but expecting an inch is probably too optimistic.  Here are the model forecasts for this system:

½” – Canadian Model

Dusting – American, European, and UK Met Models

0” – WRF Model

The next snow will likely come around Friday from the northwest.  There may be a small upslope component to this system.  While the upslope (i.e., easterly winds) doesn’t look big enough to generate lots of snow, it may be significant enough to keep the limited new snow from blowing into Kansas until Sunday.  Here are the model forecasts for our patrol zone for Friday:

3” – American, European, and UK Met Models

2” – Canadian Model. 

The next snowfall may come in around Monday (1/24) or Tuesday (1/25) with some colder air per the Canadian Model solution, or the system may go too far to our north per the American Model solution.  The Canadian Model is calling for 4”, the European Model is calling for 1”, and the American Model says zero.  Let’s hope it’s a big upslope with cold temperatures and lots of snow.

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora reported 1” from Friday’s system, which looking at the snowstake cam would have been my best guess.  So, the day before the snow, the American and European Models called this one dead-on, while the Canadian and WRF Model’s dusting prediction did not come to pass.  Five days before the storm the UK Met Model was way too optimistic, but happily the American and European Models’ dusting prediction was low. 

I can’t wait until the forecasts are back to discussing feet of snow, not a few measily inches. 


-Jordan (Monday (1/17) afternoon)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.