Boring week (weather-wise), so I don’t feel guilty writing this forecast a bit earlier than normal. We’ll be mostly under a ridge of high pressure through Thursday, with all interesting weather passing far to our north. The American and WRF Models are saying it’ll be partly cloudy in our patrol zone while the Canadian Model is saying it should be sunny during this time. Winds look to be moderate (not the non-existent winds previously and dubiously forecasted by the models for this week).
A bit of snow is likely on Friday (1/14). A system that starts to our west, moves north to hit the west coast near Seattle, and then moves south again towards us looks to hit us on Friday. Not a significant system, but there is a chance of a small upslope component per the Canadian Model (but not the American Model). Here are the model snow forecasts for our patrol zone for Friday/Saturday:
4” – UK Met Model
2” – Canadian Model
Dusting – American and European Models
Then, maybe a quick shot of snow coming from the Pacific Northwest direction on Sunday (1/16). The American, Canadian, and European Models are all only calling for a dusting.
Another system looks like it may come in sometime between Tuesday (1/18) and Thursday (1/20). It’s too far out to guess on this system’s size or exact timing.
Retrospective Discussion:
The Eldora Snowstake Cam showed 1” or so of new snow on Saturday, so just a touch above the model predictions.
Great seeing many of you at the Avalanche class this weekend.
-Jordan (Monday (1/10) Afternoon)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
