Snowfall is wrapping up in our patrol zone as I write this, with a foot of fresh snow out of this system.  Yeah!

Friday looks to be partly cloudy with westerly winds. 

A minor system quickly passes us on Saturday morning from the west northwest (with westerly winds).  The American, Canadian, and WRF Models are all calling for just a half an inch of snow.  So, not a big system by any stretch of the imagination.

Then, we’re under a ridge of high pressure from Sunday through roughly Thursday of next week.  There will be lots of sun.  And if you believe the American and Canadian models, winds will be under 20 mph the entire time.  (Personally, I never trust a forecast of very little wind in our patrol zone, but who knows, I suppose it’s slightly more plausible than pigs flying.) 

After that, a storm from the southwest may (or may not) hit us around Friday (1/14) or so, followed immediately by another possible storm (or not) from the northwest.  The Canadian Model is seeing an upslope component and is calling for 4” while the American Model is calling just for 1”. 

Fingers crossed it’ll start snowing again soon.

Retrospective Discussion:

My best estimate looking at the Eldora Snowstake Cam is that Eldora picked up roughly 12” of snow out of this system.  So, all of the models did a nice job in their predictions, with the NAM hitting it on the bullseye, and only the WRF being a bit too optimistic. 

And with this storm, the Lake Eldora Snotel site puts us at 101% of average snowpack.  Considering on December 15 we were at 46% of average snowpack, what a difference these last few storms have made!


-Jordan (Thursday (1/6) afternoon)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.