A system from our west northwest will produce snow from today (Tuesday) afternoon through Thursday morning in the northern mountains of Colorado, which includes our patrol zone.  Although winds are not from a favorable direction for snow for our patrol zone, the combination of a jet streak, spillover effect, and a front are making the models optimistic this will be a decent snow producer for our patrol zone.  Model snow forecasts for this storm are below:

17” – WRF Model

12” – NAM Model

11” – American and RDPS Models

10” – European, UK Met, and Canadian Models

After a break on Thursday afternoon and Friday, a system looks to skirt to our north on Saturday (1/8).  The American model is only calling for 1”, while the Canadian model is calling for 4”.  Fingers crossed this turns out to be a good snow producer too.

Retrospective Discussion:

In the New Years Eve / Day system, the Eldora Snowstake Cam showed 8”, so just before the storm, most models did a nice job predicting the storm, except the WRF Model that was embarrassingly low.  Several days before the system came in, the American Model did the best job predicting it, though all medium term models underestimated its strength. 

Happy New Year Everyone!

-Jordan (Tuesday (1/4) morning)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.