On-and-off snow should continue to hit our patrol zone from this Christmas Eve afternoon through New Years Day, with over 6” having already fallen.  That’s pretty awesome.

The current system (from the west and southwest) should produce snow this afternoon through Christmas morning.  The various model forecasts for this afternoon through tomorrow sunrise are as follows:

8” – WRF Model

5” – European Model

4” – Canadian Model

2” – American Model

After only light snow on Christmas day itself, the next system comes in on Sunday from the northwest.  The Sunday to Monday morning model forecasts for our patrol zone are as follows:

6” – WRF Model

3” – European Model

1” – Canadian and American Models

Both of these systems may have the support from a strong jet streak aloft.  That’s good, as there are no easterly winds predicted at any time, which is a shame.  Any jet-streak support in addition to the spill-over effect would be very helpful. 

Snow continues to fall, on-and-off after that.  The models disagree on timing and details.  The totals from Monday (12/27) afternoon through Saturday (1/1) are as follows:

10” – Canadian Model

6” – European Model

3” – American Model

In sum, although the models vary wildly on their total storm predictions, the low end forecast of a half foot more by New Years is okay, and the upper end forecast of two or more feet of snow by New Years is great.

Retrospective Discussion:

As of writing this (10 am MT), the Eldora Snow Stake Cam shows 6½” of fresh snow.  That puts us way ahead already of the American Model prediction from my last forecast, and makes it seem like the European and Canadian models did the best job, but I’ll wait to write a better retrospective analysis until we see how this storm plays out after some more time.

Happy Holidays Everyone!

-Jordan (Friday (12/24) morning)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.