Sorry for the late forecast everyone.
A strong system moves in from the west / southwest late on Thursday. It should be a huge producer for other parts of the state, and some of that will likely bleed into our patrol zone, but unfortunately, it doesn’t look like it will produce an upslope at any point, which is what we really need for great snow amounts. Like many systems from the west / southwest, the closer one is to the Continental Divide in our patrol zone, the more snow will likely fall.
During this system, it should snow for several days. Perhaps the system will have two discernable waves (i.e., waves in the colloquial sense). During the first wave, the temperatures look very warm, so what snow falls will likely be heavy. Here are the model snow forecasts for our patrol zone for the first wave, from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning:
9” – European and Canadian Models
7” – WRF Model
5” – UK Met Model
2” – American Model
Saturday night to Tuesday morning the second wave of the same system should continue to produce some snow. Same westerly-ish winds, but at least temperatures are colder. Here are the model snow forecasts for our patrol zone for this second wave:
7” – European Model
6” – Canadian Model
5” – UK Met Model
2” – American Model
Okay, so yes the models are all over the map (no pun intended) on total snowfall, with somewhere between 4” per the American Model to 15-16” per the Canadian and European Models. Fingers crossed the latter predictions come true.
Retrospective Discussion:
Sadly, and unsurprisingly, no snow worth talking about since my last forecast, so we’ll just skip the retrospective discussion.
Happy Holidays Everyone!
-Jordan (Wednesday (12/22) morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
