The next system comes in on Wednesday, pulling moisture from the west with a bit from the northwest and southwest. A Colorado low looks to form from it. While those are normally good, the low looks likely to be too far north (and moving too fast as is typical this time of year) to be a huge snow producer for our patrol zone. At least, this system may get a snow assist from a jet streak in the higher atmosphere. That said, the total snow predictions from the models are pretty low and pretty consistent:
3” – European and WRF Models
2” – American, Canadian, and UK Met Models
The next system comes in late Thursday / Friday, but the models have it going too far north to produce much snow in our patrol zone. Here are the model predictions:
2” – UK Met Model
1” – European and Canadian Models
½” – American Model
Gazing into forecast fairyland, each models show possibilities for snow after that, but nothing huge until close to Christmas, which is too far off to have any predictive value. Fingers crossed we start getting more snow.
Retrospective Discussion:
We only got a dusting on Friday (12/10) after I wrote my forecast. So, the American Model called it right, with the other models were too optimistic.
Also, I forgot in my last retrospective discussion to look at how my forecast on December 2 predicted the upcoming systems. The system closer to that forecast was called pretty close by the American Model, too optimistically by European and Canadian Models, and way too optimistic by the UK Met Model. The later system, seven days out, was called way too optimistically by the European, Canadian, and American Models (the American Model’s 6” was the closest to the 2 ½” that actually fell), but it’s just impressive that they forecasted accurately that we’d get snow 7-8 days after the model runs. In any event, the American Model seems to be on quite a streak so far this season.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday 12/13 evening)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
