Three snowfalls to talk about (and it’s great to be talking snow again).  But, none of them are big.

First, the small system from last night is winding down.  Snow may continue a bit more today, and here are the model forecasts from sunrise to the end of the day:

2” – European Model

1” – Canadian and WRF Models

Dusting – American Model

Second, our next shot of snow comes in on Wednesday December 15.  Moisture is being pulled from both the west and southwest, and in addition it looks like a strong jet streak may be overhead.  That said, the westerly winds aren’t great for snow production for our zone.  Here are the model snow forecasts:

2” – American and European Models

1” – Canadian Model

Third, the next system comes in between Friday December 17 and Sunday December 19, also with moisture being pulled from the west and from the southwest.  Yet another storm that looks to be great for Wolf Creek and Vail, but probably not as good for our patrol zone.  Although on the edge of forecast fairyland, as of now there is one possible good news on this system for us.  There may (or may not) be a low moving south of our region, which could be good for upslope winds.  Let’s keep our eyes on this system for when it gets closer.  Here are the model forecasts:

4” – Canadian Model

3” – European Model

2” – American Model

Even though none of these systems are big, it’s great to be talking about snow again!

Retrospective Discussion:

On Tuesday we just received a dusting, while to the west of the continental divide, there was 1-4”.  This was consistent with the American, Canadian, and UK Met model predictions for our patrol zone.  WRF was too optimistic, having called for 2”.

As of writing this on Friday morning, the Eldora snowstake cam showed 2½”.  Assuming there’s not much more snow today, the American and Canadian models predicted this well, the UK Met model was a bit too optimistic, and the European model was way too optimistic.


-Jordan (Friday 12/10 morning)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.