Well, something is better than nothing.  A system seems to get stuck to our west on Monday night and will hang out there for a few days.  It’ll probably produce snow in our patrol zone in two waves.  The first wave is on Monday night to Tuesday, and is very weak.  Here are the model forecasts:

2” – WRF Model

1” – European Model

Dusting – American, Canadian, and UK Met Models

The second and stronger wave of the system (with the low centered seemingly north of our patrol zone, which isn’t great), looks set to come in on Wednesday evening through Friday evening.  Here are the model totals: 

11” – European Model

4” – UK Met Model

3” – Canadian Model

2” – American Model

Fingers crossed that the European Model’s optimism prevails.  For what it’s worth, the European Model though often wrong, is rarely the optimistic outlier. 

The next snow producer may come in around Wednesday December 15, or so, but that’s for all intents and purposes out in forecast fairyland. 

Retrospective Discussion:

Sadly, but unsurprisingly, the jet streak didn’t provide snow on Sunday.  I can’t wait until we’re back in the snow cycle, and I can start having real retrospective discussions again. 


-Jordan (Monday (12/6) evening)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.