14” yesterday, and more on the way! A wave of moisture looks likely to be over us on Wednesday to Thursday morning, with a low centered just to our north (not as good as one to our south, but better than nothing). Here are the various model snow forecasts for the Wednesday system for our patrol zone:
10” – Canadian Model
6” – RDPS Model
5” – WRF Model
4” – American Model
3” – NAM Model
2” – European Model
If I had to venture a guess, I think the WRF/American/RDPS Models are most likely to be correct, but here’s to hoping the Canadian Model’s optimism comes to pass.
There’ll be a second round either Thursday afternoon or Friday. Here are the various model snow forecasts for our patrol zone for Thursday and Friday (though they all disagree on when it will snow during that two day period):
4” – American and European Models
3” – WRF Model
1” – Canadian Model
Dusting – NAM Model
0” – RDPS Model
Warmer and sunnier weather over the weekend. Then, good signs for the next system that should come in around next Tuesday (4/27).
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora (per the snow stake cam) picked up 14” from the Monday evening storm. Heck yeah! The WRF and American Models runs for my Sunday forecast were spot-on, and the Canadian and RDPS models were just a touch high. The UK Met Model was way too low, and the European and NAM predictions (of 5” and 4” respectively) were comically low. In my Friday forecast, the Canadian Model had predicted it almost perfectly, while the UK Met and American Models were a touch low, and the European Model was embarrassingly low.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Tuesday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
