Although our patrol season is wrapping up, I figured I’d keep the forecasts going at least for a bit more as there’s so much snow to talk about. We’re likely to see another one to two feet of snow during the week (though one model provides a pessimistic caveat).
A low pressure system drops from the north northwest bringing round one of snow on Monday afternoon / evening. Here are the various model forecasts for our patrol zone for that system:
17” – Canadian Model
16” – RDPS Model
14” – WRF Model
13” – American Model
8” – UK Met Model
5” – European Model
4” – NAM Model
Round two of the same system will be on Wednesday/Thursday, with the following as the various model forecasts for our patrol zone for that system:
10” – WRF Model
6” – Canadian, UK Met, and American Models
2” – European Model
Temperatures look unseasonably cold during this system, which is not surprising considering it’s coming from so far north. This is good for snow production. Likewise wind direction looks favorable, though the exact location of the low could make a big difference. On the other hand, this is an unusual system, so tough to say whether the roughly two foot forecasts of the WRF and Canadian Models will pan out or not. The European Model’s pessimism, however, seems a tad unlikely, especially as it seems to have way underestimated many of our recent storms. Fingers’ crossed I’m right about that, as it would be great to get another one to two feet of snow this week.
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora reported 8” of snow Friday morning, 4” of snow Saturday morning, and 1” of snow Sunday morning. When you add that to the 5” from the first part of this storm, the storm total was 18”. This past Monday’s “one to two feet” forecast was spot on, with the UK Met Model having done the best job of predicting the storm from the beginning, the American Model a bit too high, the Canadian Model a bit too low, and the European Model the furthest off having predicted only 12”. Looking at the Thursday forecast for the second half of the storm, the WRF Model did a great job, with the American and Canadian Models doing a pretty good job too. The UK Met Model was too pessimistic, with the NAM and European Models were extraordinarily pessimistic.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Sunday afternoon)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
