Yeah snow! Fellow patrollers (who are also snow geeks), we have a lot to talk about.
A low passes over Colorado today (Thursday), which may be the biggest day of this four day long snowy stretch. With the low around the center of the state, the winds will be favorable for our patrol zone getting snow, but they’ll be the most favorable the further north one goes. As such, the epicenter of the snow is more northerly. So, in our patrol zone St. Vrain Mountain / Rock Creek will likely have more fresh snow than Brainerd and Bryan Mountain, which in turn will likely have more fresh snow than East Portal.
Here are the various model forecasts for snow from Thursday afternoon through Saturday evening (for the Brainerd/Bryan Mountain portion):
12” – WRF Model
11” – American and Canadian Models
9” – UK Met Model
7” – NAM Model
6” – European Model
Please also note that temperatures will be very cold for this time of year through Saturday – which is good for snow production (but will be quite a shift after the warm weeks we’ve had).
Then, a system comes in from almost the due north on Monday. As such, it’ll be cold. It’s not a typical snowstorm pattern for us this time of year, but we’ll take it.
13” – Canadian Model
11” – UKMet Model
10” – American Model
5” – European Model
After that, it looks like more possible snowstorms all the way well into forecast fairyland.
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora reported 1” on Tuesday morning, 3” on Wednesday morning, and 1” on Thursday morning. No additional snow as of noon on Thursday. So, as for the short term models in the beginning of the week, the WRF Model did a decent job, being just a bit high. The NAM Model was way too optimistic, and the RDPS was even more overly optimistic. I’ll provide a retrospective on the medium-term models after this storm is done.
Fingers crossed for snow!
-Jordan (Friday afternoon)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
