There’ll be a little snow today, but as no one will read this until tomorrow (Friday), let’s skip to Friday. A complex but weak system comes in from the northwest on Friday and lingers into Saturday morning. We’d be fortunate to get 3” or more out of this system. Here are the various model forecasts for our patrol zone:
UKMet Model: 3”
Canadian , American, RDPS, Models: 2”
WRF and European Models: 1”
NAM Model: dusting
This weekend we look to be under a big ridge of high pressure.
The next system comes in from the northwest from Monday night to Wednesday morning, though it could possibly pass to the north of us. Here are the current model snow forecasts:
American Model: 4”
Canadian Model: 3”
European Model: 2”
It then looks dry all the way out to forecast fairyland. Although I know this isn’t a necessarily happy forecast, the glass is half full – we’ve been getting a ton of snow recently, so no reason to be down about a somewhat dry forecast.
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora reported 12” out of the Tuesday / Wednesday system, which is fantastic, and the snow cam indicated it may been even slightly bigger. The WRF Model called this one dead-on, the UK Met was low, and every other model (American, NAM, RDPS, and especially the Canadian and European Models) were embarrassingly low.
Cheers everyone.
-Jordan (Thursday afternoon)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
