Fellow patrollers, quick update to my last forecast (I’d love to dig in deeper, but don’t have time right now). If a good forecast discussion is 75% reporting and 25% editorial, my last update was 50-50 of each, and this one is 95% reporting and only 5% editorial.
Now that we’re within range of most of the regional models, here are each of the model snow forecasts for Friday at noon to Sunday at midnight. Unfortunately, as you’ll see, adding more model forecasts has brought no more clarity. As you look at the widely varying totals below, bear in mind (here’s my 5% editorial) that most of these are a bit high from a snow perspective (but not a moisture perspective) as the storm will likely produce heavier snow than the snow predictions.
American Model: 80”
WRF Model: 33”
UK Met Model: 21”
RDPS Model: 13”
European Model: 12”
Canadian Model: 11”
NAM Model: 10”
So, has the American Model gone mad, or might we actually see something incredible? We’ll find out soon enough if the big storm will produce enough upslope to hit our patrol zone, and how big the system will be overall.
As an aside, here are the current model snow forecasts for my house in Golden (American Model: 54”, UK Met Model: 35”, Canadian Model: 31”, RDPS: 27”, European Model 21”; NAM Model: 9”).
I can’t wait to see what happens.
-Jordan (Thursday evening)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.