We’re under a very pleasant ridge of high pressure today and tomorrow.
A large low pressure system (currently to the west of San Francisco) makes its way to Colorado on Thursday. It’s exact location could make a huge difference in how much snow we get. Also, while the system is deep (i.e., lots of precipitation to high up in the atmosphere), it will be warm while it’s snowing on the mountains – almost as warm as the freezing point. So, the snow may be heavy. And, considering the type of storm, it’s really hard as of now to predict how much we’ll get. Here are the current model snow forecasts for our patrol zone:
UK Met Model: 8”
American, RDPS, and European Models: 3”
WRF, NAM, and Canadian Models: 2”
After that system, another ridge of high pressure will be over our region Friday and Saturday. Maybe a touch of snow on Sunday or Monday. The Canadian and European Models are calling for 1” on Sunday, while the American Model is just calling for a dusting. Then, as we gaze into forecast fairyland, the models completely disagree what may happen next, so I won’t bother gazing that far out for this report.
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora picked up roughly 1” of snow out of the last system, so the American and NAM Models were spot on, and the WRF and RDPS Models were too optimistic.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Tuesday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
