A system currently over an area from British Columbia to Idaho makes its way to our patrol zone Monday afternoon. Complicating (and hopefully benefiting us) is that a low pressure will form southwest of our patrol zone, which often means favorable winds for snow but also means less predictability. It’ll also be cold. Here are the various model snow forecasts:
WRF and UKMet Models: 5”
Canadian and American Models: 3”
European Model: 2”
Then a system comes from the northwest for Friday to Saturday. Here are the various model snow forecasts from Friday to Sunday morning:
Canadian Model: 6”
American and European Models: 4”
Then, there may be a closed low on Monday and Tuesday. If that goes the right way, it could be huge (or if it goes the wrong way, we won’t get much of anything). Here are the model forecasts for this system:
Canadian and European Models: 3”
American Model: 2”
Retrospective Discussion:
Often it’s tricky to do a retrospective discussion as it’s difficult to say how much snow actually fell (I devote almost a full chapter to this in my book Hunting Powder), but on the last forecast, it’s nearly impossible. Eldora reported 2”, while it’s snow stake cam recorded 4-5”. So, I’ll just throw my hands up in the air, and not try to do a retrospective discussion on how the models performed on the last system.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Tuesday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
