A system coming from the west northwest gets to our patrol zone looks to give us a dusting to two inches late today (Friday).  More snow from this system on Saturday into Sunday morning.  Here are the model snow forecasts for Saturday to Sunday morning for our patrol zone:

UKMet Model: 5”

Canadian Model: 3”

American, European, and WRF Models: 2”

NAM Model: 1”

After probably a lull on Monday and Tuesday morning (though at least one model, the NAM Model, is calling for snow on Sunday night into Monday), another system from the west northwest looks likely to hit our patrol zone on Wednesday / Thursday.  The Canadian Model shows a strong upslope component to this storm, while the American Model shows a weaker upslope component but the American Model is ironically predicting more snow.  Here are the model snow forecasts for Wednesday/Thursday:

American Model: 9”

Canadian Model: 7”

European Model: 5”

UK Met Model: 3”

It’ll be interesting to see how these two systems play out, as many models are actually predicting more snow at my house in Golden then in the grid cells for Brainerd Lake / point spots for Eldora.  We’ll see.

At the edge of forecast fairyland, another system looks possible next weekend, with the American and European Models calling for 4” and the Canadian Model calling for 2”.

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora reported picking up 6” on Wednesday, which happily was significantly more than forecasted by even the most optimistic models, with the WRF Model doing the worst one to predict that system.


-Jordan (Friday morning)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.