A system barrels in from the northwest today (Friday).  There will be an upslope component of this storm starting Saturday afternoon, with a low pressure centered probably just east of the four corners.   Upslopes are great for our patrol zone, but the easterly winds don’t look as strong as we’d like to produce a really large upslope.  The Friday to Sunday morning model snow forecasts for this storm are as follows:

European Model: 9”

WRF Model: 7”

Canadian  and NAM Models: 6”

RDPS Model: 5”

American and UKMet Models: 3”

After maybe a brief break, the next system arrives from the northwest Sunday night, and then lingering snow through Wednesday.  The model snow forecasts for our patrol zone are:

Canadian Model: 6”

UKMet Model: 4”

American Model: 3”

European Model: 2”

Then, practically in Forecast Fairyland, from Friday (2/19) to Sunday (2/21), the model snow forecasts for our patrol zone are:

European Model: 6”

Canadian Model: 4”

American Model: 1”

It’s nice that looking forwards (and backwards) there’s lots of snow!

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora reported picking up 2” from Tuesday through Friday morning – right in line with most model forecasts, but unfortunately much lower than the WRF Model forecast.


-Jordan (Friday morning)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.