A weak system comes in from the west northwest on Tuesday, but looks like it decides just to hang out over Colorado until Friday (which is rather odd compared to most systems) when a much stronger system from the west northwest looks to hammer us on Friday through Sunday. 

For the first system (Tuesday to Thursday), here are the model forecasts for snow for our patrol zone:

WRF Model – 7”

Canadian and European Models – 3”

UKMet and NAM Models – 2”

American Model – 1”

I wouldn’t count out the WRF Model’s high forecast, as the WRF Model tends to be the most accurate model for our patrol zone. 

Then, for the second system (Friday through Sunday), here are the model forecasts for snow for our patrol zone:

Canadian Model – 17”

UKMet Model – 9”

European and American Model – 5”

European Model – 5”

Obviously, the models have yet to get a handle on this storm.  There may be a significant upslope element to this system, which the American model sees on Friday and the Canadian model doesn’t see until Sunday.  Regardless, it should be some real snow, and fingers’ crossed the Canadian Model is calling this one right.

At the cusp of forecast fairyland, as soon as the Friday to Sunday system is done, it looks like another system that started to our northwest but swooped around to our south before heading back northerly will provide perhaps a dusting of snow late Sunday (2/14) to Tuesday (2/16). 

Then, another system from the northwest on Tuesday (2/16) is predicted to dump an additional 5” of snow through Thursday (2/18) per the Canadian model, or 1” of snow per the American Model.  But that’s in forecast fairyland.

Regardless, if the Canadian Model (the most optimistic one right now) is to be believed, we’ll have over 2 feet of snow in the next ten days.  Fingers’ and toes’ crossed.

Retrospective Discussion

From Friday through Sunday morning, Eldora picked up between 11-16” of snow.  Yeah!  So the Canadian and WRF models weren’t too low, the UKMet model was quite low, and the European, American, and NAM Models were embarrassingly low.  And, surprise surprise, it was really windy this weekend too.

Cheers.  I’ll try to do a forecast late in the week (if I have time work-wise).  Also, please be very careful about avalanche danger.

-Jordan (Monday afternoon)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.