The current system that produced a half a foot of snow for our patrol zone (and probably much more near the continental divide) is on its way out with another inch or two of snow possible.
The next system barreling down from the northwest likely to hit us Friday afternoon / evening, hot on the heels of this last snow. Although not a favorable wind direction for our patrol zone, there is a jet streak component, which is good. The model snow forecasts between Friday afternoon to Monday morning are all over the map, which is not surprising considering the jet streak component. Here they are:
The Canadian and WRF Models – 9”
UKMET – 6”
European Model – 3”
The American Model – 2”
NAM Model – 1.5”
Saturday will be snowy, windy, and cold. The models still disagree whether Sunday will be sunny or snowy, but regardless they agree it will be windy. Surprise!
Then, there’ll likely be a comparative lull in snow for our patrol zone as systems pass just a bit too far to our north Sunday afternoon to Tuesday. During this time (Sunday night to Tuesday) the Canadian Model predicts 2” but the American Model is only calling for a dusting.
If you can believe the models a week out, a big system could be on its way for us late next week, but there’s huge model disagreement on details. The Canadian Model is calling for 6” on Wednesday (2/10). The American Model, on the other hand, is calling for snow from Thursday (2/11) to Saturday (2/13) with 7” total. And the European Model is calling for 0” during that time frame.
Let’s see how it plays out. Regardless, it’s great to have lots of snow forecasted to write about. Just be super careful out there with the weak snowpack seeing lots of new loading.
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora received 5-6” as of Thursday morning, with the UK Met and European Models calling it perfectly, but the WRF, American, and Canadian models all being too pessimistic.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Thursday morning) Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
