A ridge of high pressure lasts through Friday.  A small system comes in from the west on Saturday.  With this weekend’s avalanche class, I’ll provide both model forecasts for the Saturday system for our patrol zone and for Berthoud.  They are:

Patrol Zone:

Canadian, WRF, and NAM Models: 1.5”

European Model: 1”

American and UKMet Models: dusting

Berthoud Pass Region:

NAM Model: 3.5”

Canadian Model: 2.5”

WRF, European, and UKMet Models: 2”

American Model: 1”

With the northwest wind direction and the cold temperatures on Saturday, I wouldn’t be surprised if Berthoud Pass region picks up a bit more snow than forecasted.  We’ll see.

Then, a ridge of high pressure returns on Sunday through Tuesday morning. 

Tuesday night, a perhaps more formidable system comes in again from the west.  This might have a small assist from a jet streak.  Bizarrely, the European, Canadian, and American Models are all predicting 5-6” of snow for our patrol zone during that time, though the European and Canadian Model have the snow lasting longer (but not more) than the American Model.  Here are the forecast model snow predictions for our patrol zone for Tuesday night through Thursday morning. 

Then, gazing into forecast fairyland next Saturday, a system may (or may not) be coming in from the north northwest.   

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora reported 2” from the Tuesday system, so the WRF Model was a bit too optimistic, the Canadian Model was a bit too pessimistic, and the European Model called it perfectly.


-Jordan (Thursday morning)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.