We’re currently sitting under a windy ridge of high pressure, with a large low pressure to our east centered over Iowa.

A weak system drops in from the northwest on Saturday.  It’s fueled by a jet streak, so as always, have low confidence in model forecasts as jet streaks are difficult to predict.  Here are the various model snow forecasts for our patrol zone for this system:

Canadian Model: 2”

European and NAM Models: 1”

American and WRF Models: ½”

The next system, also from the northwest, enters our patrol zone on Sunday night / Monday morning.  Here are the various model snow forecasts for this system:

WRF Model: 3”

American Model: 2.5”

Canadian and European Models: 1”

NAM Model: dusting

Things get complicated quickly, as on Monday evening, a low pressure forms over Southern California may or may not continue to drive moisture into our patrol zone for a few days.  Here are the various model snow forecasts for this system:

Canadian and European Models: 3”

American Model: dusting

While practically in forecast fairyland, a system from the northwest looks to join the moisture already coming from the southwest around Friday with snowy weather (hopefully) set to continue for a while.  Here are the Friday (1/22) to Monday morning (1/25) model forecasts:

Canadian Model: 6”

European Model: 2”

American Model: ½”

Fingers crossed that the Canadian Model’s more optimistic scenario pans out.

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora reported 2” Thursday morning, generally inline with the forecasted snow from my Tuesday forecast.  (Of course, it was windy enough so it’s always hard to say exactly how much snow fell.)  The UKMet, NAM, WRF, and RDPS Models all did a great job predicting this tricky jet fueled snow, while the Canadian Model was sadly too optimistic, the American Model was fortunately too pessimistic, and the European Model really dropped the ball by predicting no snow at all.  Interestingly, if you look back at the model runs for my prior Thursday forecast, the American Model predicted this system and an inch of snow – which is an extraordinarily good forecast a week out – while the European and Canadian Models missed this system a week ago.

-Jordan (Friday morning)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.