We are currently sitting under a ridge of high pressure.
On Wednesday night into Thursday, a large system will pass by to the north of us, with its center around the US / Canadian border. Moisture may extend as far south as Colorado, supported by a jet streak. Jet streaks are notoriously unreliable in terms of predicting the amount of snow, so all forecasts must be taken with a hefty grain of salt. Here are the various model forecasts for our patrol zone:
Canadian Model: 5”
RDPS Model: 2.5”
UK Met Model: 2”
NAM and WRF Models: 1.5”
American Model: ½”
European Model: 0”
Then, a weak system comes in from the west northwest on Saturday (into Sunday morning). This one also may be supported by a jet streak. The UK Met Model is calling for 4”, the Canadian Model is calling for 2.5”, the European Model is calling for 1”, and the American Model is calling for ½”.
Another weak system comes in from the west northwest on Sunday into Monday (MLK Day). The European Model is calling for 2” and the Canadian and American Models are calling for 1”.
Gazing into forecast fairyland, another system may come in from the northwest on Wednesday-Thursday (January 20-21), with the Canadian and Model calling for 2” and the American Model is calling for ½”.
If you add this all up, over the next 10 days, the most pessimistic outlook is 2” total and the most optimistic outlook is 13” total. However, the first two storms are powered by jet streaks, and the second two storms are pretty far out from a forecasting standpoint, so the forecast is even less predictable than normal. I’m sure everyone will make fun of that line.
Regardless, we need more snow!
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora picked up 2-3” on Saturday, with the WRF Model’s prediction being dead-on, the European and American Models being too pessimistic, and the Canadian Model being way too pessimistic.
-Jordan (Tuesday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
