Before I dive into the forecast, in case it’s not apparent to everyone, be careful out there from an avalanche perspective – the snowpack is scary right now. With that said, back to the forecast.
Today’s snowstorm should wrap up around 9 pm. Eldora has picked up 2-3 inches of snow so far today as of 3 pm, with maybe another ½” to 1½” likely to still fall. Then, we’ll be on the cusp of a ridge of high pressure from Wednesday onwards. If there’s any good news, wind speeds look less than the normal insane winds in our patrol zone for a while.
As Ben described this winter so far to me the other day, it looks like the season of “death by a thousand one inch snowstorms” is set to continue. The next (very small) shot of snow will be on Thursday evening (1/7) with a weak system from the west northwest. The Canadian Model is calling for ½”, and the European, UK Met, and American Models are calling for just a dusting.
The following system will be also be a weak one, also from the west northwest, on Saturday night (1/9). The American and UK Met Models are calling for 2”, Canadian Model and European Models are calling for a dusting.
No more snow forecasted until forecast fairyland (around Friday or Saturday (1/15-1/16)).
Retrospective Discussion:
Happily, Eldora reported 1” on Sunday morning, 2” on Monday morning, and 1” on Tuesday morning – more than my past Friday forecast and ironically much more in line from my past Tuesday forecast if following the Canadian Model. And I should note that the Canadian Model did the best on predicting these small-ish snows, even if it backed off on its forecasts, as the other models predicted virtually nothing. A thousand 1” snowstorms are better than nothing.
-Jordan (Tuesday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
