Light snow continues today from this system coming from the southwest, with the WRF Model calling for another 1/2”.
Then, there will be a series of small systems from between Friday (1/1) and next Tuesday (1/5). The Canadian Model is calling for 4” during that time period. The European Model is calling for 1”, and the American model is just calling for a series of dustings. The WRF Model only runs out to Friday (1/1), but it’s calling for 2” on Thursday night to Friday. Regardless, more snow on the divide than the lower portions of our patrol zone as these systems do not have favorable wind directions for our patrol zone.
Then, a slightly stronger system looking to hit us (on the cusp of forecast fairyland) next Wednesday (1/6) or Thursday (1/7), coming in from the west-northwest. The Canadian Model is predicting it comes in on Thursday and we get 6” out of this system. The American Model is predicting it comes in on Tuesday night and we get 1” out of this system. The European Model splits the difference, with the storm coming in Wednesday night and we get 2” out of the system. Nothing to get too excited about from the looks of it. Fingers’ crossed the Canadians have predicted this one better, eh.
Gazing into forecast fairyland, the pattern looks to continue to remain active after the next Wednesday/Thursday system.
Retrospective Discussion:
Happily, we’ve been receiving more snow than forecasted (though be careful out there due to avalanche danger).
Last night Eldora reported 2”, which is already within the various model forecasts from my previous forecast discussion, and we may get a bit more snow today.
Eldora received 5-6” of snow over the past weekend, which is happily almost 3 times as much as predicted by the most optimistic model, the UKMet model. As I noted in my last forecast, snow produced by jet streaks are notoriously unpredictable, and the past weekend’s snow proved that point, and in the right direction.
Hope everyone is having a nice holiday season. Cheers.
-Jordan (Tuesday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
