A system currently over Idaho is headed our way.  It’ll start snowing late this afternoon (12/22).  The wind directions aren’t terribly promising for our patrol zone.  Here are the model snow predictions:

WRF Model: 3.5”

Canadian Model: 3”

NAM Model: 2.5”

European Model: 2”

American Model: 1”

There may be a bit of a jet streak component to this snow, and those are rather unpredictable, so have less faith in the above numbers than you might otherwise normally have.

A ridge of high pressure looks to return for Christmas. 

The next system looks to come in from the west late Saturday (12/26).  The European Model is calling for 3”, and the Canadian and American Models are calling for 2” in this system.  This system also may have a jet streak component (coming from nearly due west which is a tad unusual), so again the storm could be rather unpredictable.

Then, the next system comes in from the southwest next Tuesday (12/29).  The Canadian Model is calling for 6”, the European Model is calling for 3”, and the American Model is calling for 1” for this system.

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora picked up 3” from the last system, so the Canadian, WRF, and NAM models were dead on, the American and European Models were happily too pessimistic, and I can look at myself again in the mirror after my bad forecast I wrote back on 12/9. 

With Christmas and New Year rapidly approaching, I’ll still try to do my Tuesday and Thursday forecasts, but my pre-apologies if I miss some.  Happy Holidays everyone!

-Jordan (Tuesday morning) Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.