Summary:
Snow wraps up this afternoon (11/24), just dustings of snow from now to forecast fairyland …
Forecast Discussion:
Sorry for the short and boring forecast. With the completion of today’s system, the various models aren’t calling for real snow from now to forecast fairyland. Temperatures should remain relatively cold for a while (good for snowmaking but bad for facet development). And, the majority of days moving forward will likely be sunny.
The American model has a dusting of snow on Turkey Day 11/26, and another one on Sunday 11/29, just a touch of snow from a slow moving system to the south of us. The Canadian model doesn’t even show a dusting from the system, but instead has a dusting on Wednesday (12/2) and the European Model has 1” of snow on that day (12/2). Regardless, nothing exciting. Hopefully the models will turn out to be wrong, and we’ll go back to a snowy pattern soon.
If you’re looking for someone to blame for the low snow in the forecast, blame me. I just put snow tires on my car, which pretty much guarantees no snow for the foreseeable future.
Retrospective Discussion:
The Friday/Saturday storm was a complete bust. What a disappointment! I wrote this past Monday how the predicted storm didn’t make any sense, but I didn’t think that would mean we would get basically nothing. So, the American Model and UK Met’s foot plus prediction on this past Monday for the weekend storm was crazy, and the Canadian and European Model’s half-foot predictions wasn’t very good either when almost no snow fell. At least we had warning that the storm would be a bust by the Thursday model runs.
The just wrapping up Monday/Tuesday system came in stronger than predicted this past Thursday, with approximately 7” on the Eldora snowstake from the two day storm. Yeah! The European Model was too pessimistic but not embarrassingly low, while the American, Canadian, and UKMet models were just embarrassing on how little snow they predicted.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
-Jordan (Tuesday afternoon)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
