The good news is that this weekend’s storm is now making sense from a weather perspective, but the bad news is that the reason why the storm is now making sense is that there won’t be one.  It’s crazy that all four global models I wrote about on Monday predicted a real storm for this weekend, but now are predicting just a tiny amount of snow.  Bummer. 

Here are the latest runs for the snowfall likely occurring between mid-day Friday and Saturday morning.  And yes, I know these are drastically lower forecasted snow.  Sorry.

NAM and WRF Models – 1.5”

Canadian and American Models – 0.5”

RDPS and UK Met Models – dusting

European Model – 0”

No snow on Sunday.  Another small shot of snow on Monday afternoon to Tuesday morning.  European model is calling for 4”, American and UK Met models are calling for 1”, the Canadian model is calling for 0.5”.  Flurries or light snow are possible Thursday through Saturday.

Sorry for the disappointing forecast everyone.  Let’s hope this small system beats expectations, but that doesn’t look likely.  Again, it looks like the San Juan mountains will be the place to get fresh powder during this Thanksgiving time-frame.

-Jordan (Thursday afternoon)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.