Summary:
Some snow this weekend. Warmer after that with next system maybe on its way around Saturday November 21.
Discussion:
I’m writing this Thursday afternoon as opposed to Friday morning as I’m hoping to get some turns in before work on Friday morning.
A system is coming in from the west northwest this weekend. Orographics aren’t good for our patrol zone, but it may get a bit of a boost from a jet streak. The models tend to show more snow on Saturday than Sunday. Here are the model forecasts for the weekend from highest to lowest:
Canadian Model: 7.5”
WRF Model: 5”
European Model: 4”
RDPS Model – 3” (just run through Saturday)
UKMet Model – 3”
NAM Model – 1.5” (just run through Saturday)
American Model – 1”
Smaller system on Tuesday, with only a dusting forecasted.
Then, a ridge of high pressure for a while, with perhaps the next system set to come in around Saturday 11/21, but that’s practically out to forecast fairyland. Canadian forecast is currently calling for 2” Saturday; American model is calling for 1.5” Friday Night; and European Model is calling for 7” Saturday to Sunday (11/21-22). But, it’s pretty far away so could be much bigger or smaller.
Retrospective Discussion:
Well, there’s a lot more snow in the mountains than where Kelly was “injured” for our OEC refresher video (you can tell I just went through my OEC materials). On Wednesday night the Eldora snow stake camera showed roughly 2” of new snow, and some areas outside our patrol zone got more. In my Tuesday forecast, I wrote “if we’re really lucky we’ll get an inch or two of snow,” so I’m glad we got really lucky. 😊
Cheers everyone.
-Jordan (Thursday afternoon)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
