Summary:
More snow than expected over the last few days. There may be a touch of snow Wednesday. More snow is in the forecast for this weekend.
Discussion:
A system passes to the north of us on Wednesday. If we’re really lucky we’ll get an inch or two of snow on Wednesday or early Thursday. Then two systems pass over us, coming from the northwest, on Saturday and Sunday. Here are the predicted snow totals for the Saturday/Sunday system:
Canadian Model: 6”
European Model: 5”
UKMet: 3”
American Model: 1.5”
Winds are westerly, so there should be higher totals at the Divide than at the Brainerd/Eldora areas (where the above numbers are coming from).
Retrospective Discussion:
The Eldora Snow Stake reported 2” on Sunday morning, exactly in line with most model predictions. Happily the models all underpredicted Monday’s snow (I’d suspect the Colorado low caused more of an upslope than expected, and my bad for not thinking of / suggesting that possibility in the last forecast). The Eldora’s Snow Stake Cam reporting 6-7” on Monday, which is great!
And, way beyond our patrol zone, but it’s worth noting that Wolf Creek got 37” out of this storm! It must look like winter already down there, with a summit depth of 53” already.
-Jordan (Tuesday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
