Forecast summary:
Warm weather continues. We’re gazing into the crystal ball to figure out the next real snow.
Forecast discussion:
Over the next few days, a number of weak systems pass through Wyoming. While that may mean times of gusty winds and clouds, none of these systems are forecasted to get far enough south to produce meaningful snow in our patrol zone. Sadly, the Cinco de Mayo storm that looked possible in my Tuesday forecast will likely remain too far north for any meaningful precipitation.
Very warm weather will continue for almost a week. Tragically, there was a wet avalanche fatality on Tuesday near Crested Butte, and as I said in my Tuesday forecast, wet slabs will continue to be a threat in our patrol zone for the next week.
When will we get snow next?
Spoiler alert. Who knows? The models disagree and the predictions for real snow are out in forecast fairyland.
According to the American Model, the next snowstorm will be next Friday (5/8) and dump 7.5” of snow.
The Canadian Model tells a completely different story. It’s predicting a dusting of snow on Tuesday (5/5), Wednesday (5/6), and Thursday (5/7) and is not calling for any snow after that.
The European Model is calling for 1” of snow on Tuesday (5/5) and 3” of snow between Friday (5/8) and Saturday (5/9).
Don’t think that the safe guess is the European Model because it splits the difference. The safer guess is not to guess at all. 😊 These forecasts are too far out and the models are all over the map.
K.B.O. everyone.
-Jordan (Friday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
