Forecast summary:
Warm. Sunny. Darn it!
Forecast discussion:
Short and boring forecast. While there may be a touch of snow today (Saturday) and a touch more tomorrow (Sunday), after that it will be warm and sunny for at least five days, and probably longer.
Today, the Canadian, NAM, and RDPS Model are calling for 2” of snow. The American model is calling for 1” of snow. The HRRR and WRF models are not calling for any snow.
Tomorrow (Sunday), the American Model is calling for 3” of snow, the Canadian Model is calling for 1” of snow, and the NAM and RDPS models are not calling for any snow.
After that, sun and warm. This will be especially true from Tuesday through Saturday when the ridge looks to be the strongest. Highs may reach 60 degrees Fahrenheit at 10,000’ by the end of the week. On the bright side, this is the first time I can remember this winter that we had such a warm lull forecasted to last for so long.
If we want to gaze way out into forecast fairyland, per the American Model a weak trough may get far enough south to get to us on Monday (5/4), and another one on Friday (5/8), but a Ouija board is probably as accurate as weather models that far out (i.e., 9 and 13 days out).
Historically, our snowpack reaches its peak depth (as measured in SWE) at the beginning of May along the top of the Continental Divide. Sadly this year it may have peaked yesterday. But, snow is still common in May, so keep your hopes up.
Retrospective Discussion:
While there were certainly winners from the most recent storm (like Berthoud Pass), there was only an additional 0.2” of SWE (i.e., Snow Water Equivalend) at the Lake Eldora Snotel site, or roughly 2” of heavy snow. So, the Canadian model was sadly too optimistic, while the European Model probably did the best job on calling this storm when looking at the Lake Eldora Snotel site.
K.B.O. everyone.
-Jordan (Saturday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
