Forecast summary:

An inch of snow perhaps this afternoon, 3-6” of snow on Thursday through Saturday morning, then warm and pleasant.

Forecast discussion:

Today (4/21) and tomorrow morning (Wednesday) a weak trough (i.e., wet and unsettled weather) is over our region.  The Canadian Model, the European Model, and the NAM Model are calling for 1” of snow this afternoon.  The American Model is predicting 0.5” of snow this afternoon.  The WRF Model is not calling for any snow.

Then a weak ridge of high pressure arrives (i.e., warm and pleasant weather) Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

On Thursday afternoon a system comes in from the northwest and lasts until Saturday morning.  The Canadian Model is calling for 6” of snow from Thursday afternoon to Saturday morning.  The American Model is calling for 3.5” of snow during the same time period and the European Model is calling for 3” of snow.   The WRF Model is predicting 1” of snow through Friday morning (at the boundary of the forecast).  Sadly, there are no indications at this time that this will be a big storm like the ones last week.  But, all snow helps building the base for the summer ski season.

Starting Sunday, weather gets very warm and pleasant (boo!) for the foreseeable future.  Fortunately, the foreseeable future isn’t too far out when it comes to weather forecasting.

Retrospective Discussion:

The snow kept falling on Friday, with an additional 0.3” of SWE at the Lake Eldora Snotel site beyond what I reported in my Friday forecast.  That brought the Thursday / Friday storm total to 1.9” of SWE!  So, to modify my winner and loser calls among the models, the WRF Model was a bit high, the Canadian Model was a bit low, the NAM Model was even lower, and the American and European Models were way too low.   

An inch or two fell on Saturday.  And an inch or two fell on Sunday.  No snow since then.  So, it looks like the Canadian model was sadly too optimistic for the beginning of this week.

K.B.O. everyone.

-Jordan (Tuesday morning)

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.