Forecast Summary:
Nice today and tomorrow, snow on Sunday, light snow Monday to Wednesday, possible big storm on Thursday.
Forecast Discussion:
Today and tomorrow will be our last warm and sunny days for a while. Considering we want a deep snowpack for summer skiing, this is good news.
A powerful system moves in from the northwest bringing snow and cold for a while. Here are the various forecasts for Sunday’s snow:
16” – the Canadian Model
15” – the WRF Model
9” – the American Model
6” – the NAM Model
5” – the European Model
Then, the American Model is calling for light snow from Monday through Thursday, with a total of 4” of accumulation during that time. The Canadian Model has an inch between Monday and Wednesday, and then is calling for 13” on Thursday. The European Model, like the Canadian Model, is only calling for an inch of snow between Monday and Wednesday, and then is calling for 10” on Thursday.
If we turn our attention to where most of us are right now – Boulder, Golden, etc. – I’m dreaming of a White Easter. While there may be some rain as opposed to snow over the next six days, if you believe the European Model, there will be a total of 17” of snow in Boulder between Sunday and next Friday.
Retrospective Discussion:
Don’t get too excited about the snow in the forecast for next Thursday I describe above, because if we look back at the forecast from a week ago, a big storm was predicted for yesterday (4/9). The Snotel at Lake Eldora doesn’t show any real accumulation yesterday, yet a week ago the American Model was predicting 25”, the European Model was predicting 7”, and the Canadian model was calling for 3.5”. That makes it sound like the American Model alone is the complete failure, but the European Model was predicting 30” at Pikes Peak (that didn’t happen at all either). So, the Canadian model’s week out prediction was fine for a week out (a system did come through – it just didn’t produce any real snow).
KBO.
-Jordan (Friday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
